He Aspired to Be Australia’s PM — But the ‘Trump Effect’ Undermined Peter Dutton

“It’s not our night,” said Peter Dutton to a subdued crowd in Brisbane, after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a second term with a clear majority. It was a sobering night for the 54-year-old opposition leader, who not only led his Liberal National Coalition to a national defeat but also lost his own parliamentary seat of 24 years to Labor’s Ali France, a former para-athlete and disability advocate.

While Albanese’s victory marked a strong political comeback amid economic pressures, it was an even more dramatic loss for Dutton, who had once seemed poised to capitalize on voter frustration over inflation and a cost-of-living crisis.

A Faltering Campaign

Dutton’s campaign, marked by missteps and unclear messaging, struggled to connect with voters. What began with potential turned into a humiliating defeat as his team failed to present a coherent alternative to Labor.

“There was no clear narrative,” said Jitendra Prasad, an LNP supporter leaving the party’s election night event. “Labor ran a disciplined campaign — we didn’t.”

One of Dutton’s major challenges was public perception. Despite his attempts to distance himself, many Australians viewed him as the country’s version of Donald Trump — a comparison fueled by his hardline stances on immigration, aggressive rhetoric on China, and proposed public sector cuts.

The “Trump Effect” in Australian Politics

Dutton rejected the Trump comparison, but his policy positions and campaign tone often told a different story. His support for offshore detention for asylum seekers, sharp criticism of Beijing, and proposed slashing of over 40,000 public sector jobs all echoed familiar Trump-era themes.

He later softened these proposals, but the damage was done. The Coalition also appointed Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as shadow minister for government efficiency — her public appearances wearing a “MAGA” hat (short for “Make America Great Again”) only deepened the Trump association in voters’ minds.

Frank Mols, a political science lecturer at the University of Queensland, noted that economic fears also played a role: “Once the stock markets reacted to [Trump’s] tariff threats, voters started to doubt the Coalition’s economic credibility.”

Global instability — especially rising US-China tensions — became a growing concern for voters during the campaign. While Dutton tried to sell himself as the leader best equipped to deal with these challenges, voters appeared unconvinced by his erratic policy shifts and Trump-like posturing.

Confusion, Backflips, and a Misread Electorate

Dutton’s campaign suffered from repeated inconsistencies. From walking back proposed public sector cuts to reversing his stance on ending remote work for government employees, his messaging left voters unsure of what he truly stood for.

“There were too many U-turns,” said John Warhurst, Emeritus Professor at the Australian National University. “The backflips on working from home and public service reform undercut his credibility.”

There were also public gaffes — including accidentally hitting a cameraman with a football, and misjudging the price of a carton of eggs during a televised debate — that became symbolic of how out of touch the campaign seemed.

“He’s been more comfortable attacking Labor than articulating a strong, positive vision,” noted Jacob Broom, a politics lecturer at Murdoch University.

And while Dutton criticized Labor’s tax cuts and spending plans, he later announced similar policies — promising both tax relief and billions in defense and healthcare funding. The contradiction reinforced a growing perception of incoherence.

A Miscalculation on the Right

In a last-ditch effort to shore up conservative votes, Dutton reached out to the far-right One Nation Party — a move that many inside the Coalition believed was a mistake. Rather than broaden support, the strategy appeared to alienate moderate voters.

“They misread the political mood,” said Ben Wellings, associate professor at Monash University. “Australia is broadly small-c conservative. The radical right message just didn’t resonate.”

The result was a decisive national swing toward Labor — and a rare instance of an opposition leader losing both the election and his own seat.

As the dust settles, it’s clear that Dutton’s attempt to lead a Trump-style conservative revival in Australia fell flat. The country, it seems, had little appetite for disruption during uncertain times — and chose instead the stability of a government that ran a tighter, clearer campaign.