Professor Allan Lichtman is famous for accurately predicting the winner of every US presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe biden will defeat Trump.
Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of ’13 keys’ that decide who will win the US election 2020.
In 2016, Allan Lichtman forecaster who said Trump would be the next president and aslo predicted that president Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman says in a New York Times video op-ed released Wednesday.
Lichtman also considered that it would be a close contest, and notes that there are extraordinary factors that could still alter the outcome. The 13 keys in his system include factors like incumbency, social unrest, long-term and short-term economic figures, and scandals, as well as the candidates’ personal charisma.
According to Lichtman’s system, out of 13 keys, 7 favor Biden will 6 favor Trumpgiving the presumptive Democratic nominee the slightest advantage for victory.
Lichtman sees several keys working out for Mr. Trump: He’s the incumbent, he has issued major policy changes and avoided any crucial military failure abroad, he faces no serious third-party or Republican primary challenger, and he’s running against a man Lichtman deems an “uncharismatic challenger.”
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But Lichtman sees Biden having a edge, especially in the light COVID-19 pandemic and the the national movement of protests against racism and police brutality.Social unrest, the current economic collapse and the pandemic’s erasure of Mr. Trump’s economic gains all play into a Biden victory, Lichtman says. The constant waves of scandals during Trump’s presidency also including his impeachment also make it more likely that Biden will prevail.
Another advantage to Biden, in his analysis, is that Democrats made gains in the 2018 midterms when they won back the House. And Lichtman does not count Mr. Trump as a “charismatic incumbent,” arguing that he appeals to a narrow voting base — which gives another point to Biden.
“It’s up to you, the voter, to decide the future of our democracy,” he says. “So, get out and vote. Vote in person. Vote by mail.” Lichtan said.
