Former Vice President Joe Biden‘s popularity graph is rising as protests in United States began due to the death of a Black Man George Floyd.
There is also other several reasons for Biden leads over Trump in the polls. One large one is his support from female voters.
Biden is earning a historic amount of support from female voters for a presidential nominee when examining polling over the last 70 years.
Just have a look at the most recent live interview polls of registered voters from May and June compiled by The New York Times’ Nate Cohn.
Biden is leading among female registered voters by 59% to 35%, a 25-point margin when the numbers aren’t rounded. That’s a significant increase from his 19-point advantage earlier this year and the 14-point lead Hillary Clinton had in the final 2016 preelection polls of registered voters. Clinton had a 13-point edge with likely female voters.
We can go back even further. Prior to 2016, Gallup would take its final preelection poll and readjust it to match the final margin. I look to Gallup to make the closest apples-to-apples comparison (i.e preelection polling to preelection polling) that we can make.
1964 is the only year which come close to what we see in the polls right now. In 1964 Democrat Lyndon Johnson won nationally by 23 points overall, and Gallup had him taking the women’s vote by 24 points. Biden is doing well than him, he is a point better than Johnson did among female voters, even as he is doing 13 points worse overall.
In no other year since 1952 did the Democratic nominee win among female voters by more than 15 points.
Perhaps what makes Biden more impressive with women is how weak he is with men. He’s seen only a 2-point climb with them from earlier this year and is still losing them to Trump by 6 points.
